UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC): PROGRAMME GRANT: Long term dynamics of interdependent infrastructure systems

Lead Research Organisation: University of Oxford
Department Name: Geography - SoGE

Abstract

National infrastructure (NI) systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology (CST) report on NI in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming NI is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding NI performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist - this inter-disciplinary research programme will provide it.The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which we will test strategies for long term investment in NI and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.The research programme is structured around four major challenges:1. How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in NI systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt NI to make it more resilient?We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of NI and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.3. How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's NI, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.A Programme Grant provides the opportunity to work flexibly with key partners in government and industry to address research challenges of national importance in a sustained way over five years. Our ambition is that through development of a new generation of tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.

Planned Impact

HM Treasury estimates that approximately 150 billion has been invested in National Infrastructure (NI) in the UK over the last five years. Increased levels of investment will be required to renew and maintain existing infrastructure and meet the new challenge of setting the economy on a low-carbon trajectory. Similar challenges are faced worldwide, with the OECD estimating that infrastructure investments between 2000 and 2030 will be about US$71 trillion worldwide, or 3.5% of world GDP. The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) aims to deliver models and analysis methods that will help to ensure that this huge investment is allocated in a way that has the best prospects for improving infrastructure services, increasing economic competitiveness, reducing risk of failure and improving environmental standards (including carbon emissions reduction). To ensure that this impact is realised, the ITRC has been developed in close collaboration over a period of more than a year with high level stakeholders from government and industry. The main beneficiaries and benefits of the research will be: 1. Government departments and agencies (e.g. Infrastructure UK, DfT, DECC, DCLG, DEFRA, Environment Agency, Highways Agency) involved in infrastructure planning, regulation and provision, who will benefit from methods for strategic analysis that provide improved understanding of NI systems performance in the long term. 2. Infrastructure owners and utility companies (e.g. energy companies, National Grid, Network Rail, water and waste utilities, telecom providers), who will benefit from tools for analysis of capacity, demand and risk, which can be used to inform investment planning and asset management. 3. Engineering and multi-disciplinary consultants, who will benefit from improved models to inform their consultancy services, both in the UK and internationally. Ultimately, consumers of infrastructure services will benefit through more efficient NI that is designed to exploit synergies between infrastructure sectors, to minimise risks and to be adaptable to an uncertain future. Though the tools we develop will be the most advanced modelling and simulation of its kind in the world, it is essential that we find mechanisms for fast-tracking cutting edge research to practitioners in a form that is both accessible and applicable. Our Project Partners in industry and government are therefore deeply involved in the research programme, through a process of continuous and iterative testing of models and tools and co-production of strategies for NI provision. This will start with a fast track analysis in the first year of the research programme, working with Project Partners to scope possible futures and present an initial set of NI strategies. This first cycle of co-production will be followed by two subsequent cycles during the five year research programme, which will demonstrate the powerful new assessment models and tools developed in the research and transfer them our project partners. By the end of the five year Programme Grant we expect key end users to be exploiting the tools for NI systems analysis. Collaboration with the project partners will be managed to maximise impact by Roger Street (UK Climate Impacts Programme), who has 25 years of experience of linking climate research with practice in industry and government. An Expert Advisory Group with representatives from key end users will help to advise upon the research direction and enhance dissemination and uptake. Our Project Partners include representatives from the engineering institutions, who will be able to disseminate results to the professional groups that they represent. The Impact Plan has been developed by Roger Street in consultation with the project partners and includes a series of workshops, three dissemination conferences (at the end of years 1, 3 and 5 of the research programme) and knowledge transfer seminars.

Organisations

Related Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Award Value
EP/I01344X/1 01/01/2011 07/02/2011 £4,730,842
EP/I01344X/2 Transfer EP/I01344X/1 07/02/2011 06/01/2016 £4,793,012
 
Description The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) was launched in 2011 with the aim "develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure." The consortium was funded by a Programme Grant from EPSRC and substantial contributions from partners in industry and government. In five years the ITRC has developed and demonstrated a national system-of-systems infrastructure modelling capability that does not exist anywhere else in the world and has contributed to the reputation of the UK as a leading place for systems-of-systems infrastructure research and innovation.
Exploitation Route See return for EP/I01344X/1
Sectors Construction,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Energy,Environment,Transport
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/
 
Description The following organisations/ agencies have been utilizing the NISMOD tools as an analytical framework to inform their decision-making processes: 1- National Needs Assessment The National Needs Assessment (NNA) was an Institution of Civil Engineers initiative to examine the UK's likely infrastructure needs in the coming decades - set against uncertainties such as climate change, population growth, global energy prices and economic change. It also looked at the way infrastructure networks relate to, and depend on, one another and how this will impact on the performance of networks in the future. We provided the primary evidence for the NNA through our modelling framework for analysing the relationships between and among infrastructure networks. Our scenarios set out the main demand drivers on infrastructure - population growth, climate change, technology, economic trends. The National Needs Assessment sets out a vision for how infrastructure delivers economic growth, thriving communities and embraces technology to deliver a low carbon future. It is a blueprint for the National Infrastructure Commission's (NIC) long term infrastructure assessment. 2- United Nations Office for Project Services Working with the Government of Norway, ITRC and UNOPS, an operational arm of the United Nations, we are pioneering modelling tools, support and guidance to governments to enable robust future planning on national infrastructure. The tools will include assistance for long-term planning, focused for development projects, and designed to allow governments to efficiently use existing assets, prioritise new projects, and use financial resources to deliver maximum socio-economic benefits to local communities. 5- National Grid - spatial modelling for Future Energy Scenarios National Grid used the NISMOD tool to forecast use of of renewable technologies, embedded generation capacities and customer demand projections in the long-term. National Grid needed an analysis tool to: integrate different data sources assign transmission and distribution level assets to key renewable technologies (such as solar, wind and photovoltaic installations) aggregate outputs from distribution regions to the grid. The output was used with National Grid's own Future Energy Scenarios forecasting models to provide a demand allocation, by area, for different technologies and scenarios. 4- JBA Trust - bridge scour analysis JBA Trust looked at probabilistic scenarios for railway bridge failure due to extreme floods. Our team used the NISMOD-RV software to build demand loss estimates for these different failure scenarios to produce a flood risk analysis for railway infrastructure. Our work with JBA Trust produced recommendations to Network Rail on their network asset management plans. 5 - Infrastructure UK (IUK), UK Treasury The'hotspot' analysis identified critical infrastructure locations (pdf, 200 KB), measured by the number of directly or indirectly dependent customers for Infrastructure UK (IUK), a unit within HM Treasury. Through an extensive database of details from interdependent networks, we examined the nation-wide crisis points of individual infrastructures. The final analysis involved national-scale networks for electricity transmission and distribution, gas, trunk road and rail, and demonstrated that failure at a particular location could result in a cascade of effects and disruption.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Construction,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Energy,Environment,Transport,Other
Impact Types Societal
 
Description Advice on water security to economic growth to the UN Secretary-General's Advisory Board on Water and Sanitation (UNSGAB)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Professor Jim Hall talked on the importance of water security to economic growth to the board chaired by Mr. Angel Gurria, Secretary-General, OECD, and Dr. Ursula Schaefer-Preuss, Chair, Global Water Partnership. The session was also attended by, amongst others, Chen Lei (Minister of Water Resources, China) and Melanie Schultz (Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment, Netherlands).
 
Description Analysis of adaptation to the impacts of climate change
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/collaborations/
 
Description Citation in Climate UK, Summary of Climate Change Risks for London
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Citation in Defra's National Adaptation Programme
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Informed policy guidelines
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/collaborations/
 
Description Citation in Defra's National Adaptation Programme
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Citation in London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Citation in final report of the Heat Thresholds Project
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Cittaion in Adaptation Sub-Committee Progress Report
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Critical Infrastructure hotspot analysis
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact The ITRC was invited by Infrastructure UK, HM Treasury to inform policy planning at national level. The ITRC was given a brief to provide analysis of the UK 's critical interdependent Infrastructure hotspots and assess consequences of failure to inform policy decision-making at national level. Target Audience: Government Department
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/about-itrc/our-partners/
 
Description Lincolnshire County Council - soil-related geohazards
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact Using Cranfield University's geohazard datasets and Lincolnshire County Council's road network and condition surveys, we assessed soil-related geohazards for Lincolnshire's highways department. We concluded that areas prone to clay-related subsidence, which is intensified in drought conditions, have a detrimental impact on road surface quality. Lincolnshire Highways Alliance has since used the research to allocate £600k of road maintenance fund.
 
Description National Grid - Spatial modelling for Future Energy Scenarios.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact ITRC is embarking upon a knowledge exchange secondment with National Grid to address their need for spatial modelling of renewable technologies, embedded generation capacities and the customer demand projections in the long-term. National Grid requires a spatial analysis tool capable of integrating different data sources, assigning transmission and distribution level assets to key renewable technologies (such as solar, wind and photovoltaic installations) and aggregating outputs from distribution regions to the grid. National Grid then aims to use the outputs to provide a demand allocation, by area, for different technologies and use these as inputs for their other models for forecasting spatial and temporal energy capacity/generation and demand changes for different forecasting scenarios. This helps National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios models by developing a better understanding of demands on the grid across different stakeholder regions, enhancing their investment efficiency and effectiveness of operations, and providing greater clarity around investment decisions. National Grid has identified the ITRC's in-house capabilities and expertise in spatial network analysis for satisfying their requirements for the spatial analysis tool. This work enables the ITRC to create a large impact on a national utility provider and expected to lead to further collaborations.
 
Description Provided evidence to Water Resource Management Plan
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description Provided evidence to the environment committee of the London Assembly for climate risks and adaptation in London.
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description State of the Nation's Infrastructure Report and State of the Nation's Water
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/collaborations/
 
Description Worcestershire County Council - case study on geohazard assessment
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Cranfield University are working on probabilistic subsidence modelling across Worcestershire to aid county-scale infrastructure planning. A model to examine possible landslides is also being tested and undergoing validation. The models could be expanded to cover the rest of the UK.
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/collaborations/
 
Description Clean Water for All
Amount £40,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/I01344X/2 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 10/2013 
End 09/2014
 
Description EU FP7 ENHANCE project
Amount £121,499 (GBP)
Funding ID AFRXUE00 
Organisation European Commission (EC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 04/2013 
End 12/2017
 
Description Enhancing the impact of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC)
Amount £10,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/150107X/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 08/2012 
End 03/2013
 
Description HEIF+ Visualisation methods: National Infrastructure Modelling
Amount £21,775 (GBP)
Organisation Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 08/2012 
End 07/2013
 
Description Multi-Hazard Resilience Estimation and Planning for Interdependent National Infrastructure Networks 
Amount £175,000 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 01/2016 
End 12/2016
 
Description Oxford University NERC IAA
Amount £1,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Oxford 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 08/2014 
End 03/2017
 
Description Secondment IAA - infrastructure risk assessments
Amount £30,000 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 06/2014 
 
Description Secondment Spatial demand modelling for national future energy scenarios IAA Secondment
Amount £15,749 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/K503769/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 05/2014 
End 03/2015
 
Description Single Point of Failure Analysis
Amount £90,944 (GBP)
Organisation Government of the UK 
Department Department of Transport
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 06/2015 
End 12/2015
 
Description Spatial demand modelling for national future energy scenarios
Amount £14,745 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 03/2014 
End 05/2014
 
Description Support for Impact
Amount £62,000 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 10/2012 
End 03/2013
 
Title National Infrastructure Systems Model 
Description NISMOD (National Infrastructure Systems MODel) is the UK's first national infrastructure system-of-systems modelling platform and database. It includes modelling results from the first national infrastructure long term planning tool, created under the first phase of the ITRC, and currently being utilised to inform a national infrastructure needs assessment for the National Infrastructure Commission. It has attracted academic interest globally as a research tool to model infrastructure futures and resilience and their impact. The NISMOD platform is made up of four sections: NISMOD-LP - Long term performance of interdependent infrastructure systems Integrated engineering-based simulation models of demand and capacity for infrastructure services in the energy, transport, water, waste water, and solid waste sectors of Great Britain's National Infrastructure system. Links between the sectors are included through cross-sectoral demand for services, e.g. energy generation requires water, waste water treatment requires energy, etc. The interconnected simulation models are run from a single input framework and a single database (NISMOD-DB), acting as an repository for both the model inputs and outputs and as the reporting warehouse and post-processing facility. NISMOD-LP allows the assessment of national cross-sectoral strategies for infrastructure provision based upon a multi-dimensional performance metric, including cost of service, carbon intensity, supply security, etc. NISMOD-RV- Risks and vulnerability in national infrastructure systems A detailed hierarchical representation of the real-world assets and networks of the energy, transport, and water infrastructure sectors. Stochastic climate projections and hydrological modelling derive profiles of natural hazards such as storms and floods that threaten infrastructure assets and systems. A risk analysis framework uses the profiles to examine the robustness and vulnerability of existing and hypothetical configurations of national infrastructure networks. NISMOD-RV allows assessing different national strategies for infrastructure provision based on their risk-footprint under climate change. NISMOD-RD- Regional development and how it adapts to infrastructure provision A generic representation of national infrastructure systems as networks, assisting the transport of resources, goods, services, people, and the externalities of economic activity, allowing for further integration of different infrastructure sectors. The generic representation is integrated into a meso-scale model of economic growth and development to assess the role of infrastructure for growth. A spatial interaction model to assess the impact of infrastructure performance on local attractiveness for migration. Combining these approaches ,can simulate the co-evolution of the socio-economic and the national infrastructure system. NISMOD-DB - Infrastructure networks, demand and performance Combines hundreds of data layers on Great Britain's infrastructure systems within a spatial database framework (using open source languages). A scenario and output repository for the NISMOD-LP and NISMOD-RV models. Includes nnovative algorithms for the identification and synthesis of national scale infrastructure networks from incomplete and unstructured maps. NISMOD-INT - A generic framework for international applications of NISMOD A series of open-source analysis tools known for the application of evidence-based decision making in a diverse range of possible international settings. Providing recipient countries with the capacity to develop and assess alternative infrastructure transition strategies for meeting their future sustainable development goals. Capable of combining rapidly emerging global datasets with country-specific engineering insights and on-the-ground assessments. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2014 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The NISMOD suite of tools has generated circa 200 publications and is recognised as a poneering work globally. The following organisations/ agencies have been utilizing the NISMOD tools as an analytical framework to inform their decision-making processes: 1- National Needs Assessment The National Needs Assessment (NNA) was an Institution of Civil Engineers initiative to examine the UK's likely infrastructure needs in the coming decades - set against uncertainties such as climate change, population growth, global energy prices and economic change. It also looked at the way infrastructure networks relate to, and depend on, one another and how this will impact on the performance of networks in the future. We provided the primary evidence for the NNA through our modelling framework for analysing the relationships between and among infrastructure networks. Our scenarios set out the main demand drivers on infrastructure - population growth, climate change, technology, economic trends. The National Needs Assessment sets out a vision for how infrastructure delivers economic growth, thriving communities and embraces technology to deliver a low carbon future. It is a blueprint for the National Infrastructure Commission's (NIC) long term infrastructure assessment. 2- United Nations Office for Project Services Working with the Government of Norway, ITRC and UNOPS, an operational arm of the United Nations, we are pioneering modelling tools, support and guidance to governments to enable robust future planning on national infrastructure. The tools will include assistance for long-term planning, focused for development projects, and designed to allow governments to efficiently use existing assets, prioritise new projects, and use financial resources to deliver maximum socio-economic benefits to local communities. 5- National Grid - spatial modelling for Future Energy Scenarios National Grid used the NISMOD tool to forecast use of of renewable technologies, embedded generation capacities and customer demand projections in the long-term. National Grid needed an analysis tool to: integrate different data sources assign transmission and distribution level assets to key renewable technologies (such as solar, wind and photovoltaic installations) aggregate outputs from distribution regions to the grid. The output was used with National Grid's own Future Energy Scenarios forecasting models to provide a demand allocation, by area, for different technologies and scenarios. 4- JBA Trust - bridge scour analysis JBA Trust looked at probabilistic scenarios for railway bridge failure due to extreme floods. Our team used the NISMOD-RV software to build demand loss estimates for these different failure scenarios to produce a flood risk analysis for railway infrastructure. Our work with JBA Trust produced recommendations to Network Rail on their network asset management plans. 5 - Infrastructure UK (IUK), UK Treasury The'hotspot' analysis identified critical infrastructure locations (pdf, 200 KB), measured by the number of directly or indirectly dependent customers for Infrastructure UK (IUK), a unit within HM Treasury. Through an extensive database of details from interdependent networks, we examined the nation-wide crisis points of individual infrastructures. The final analysis involved national-scale networks for electricity transmission and distribution, gas, trunk road and rail, and demonstrated that failure at a particular location could result in a cascade of effects and disruption. 
 
Title NISMOD-DB: A national database of infrastructure networks, demand and performance. 
Description NISMOD-DB combines hundreds of data layers on Great Britain's infrastructure systems within a spatial database framework (using open source languages). It also acts as scenario and output repository for the NISMOD-LP and NISMOD-RV models. The development of innovative algorithms for the identification and synthesis of national scale infrastructure networks from incomplete and unstructured maps completes the foundational character of NISMOD-DB for the ITRC modelling suite. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2012 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The NISMOD-DB feeds and is fed by the output of the different groups working on the key infrastructure sectors: energy, transport, water, wastewater, solid waste and ICT. It had a pivotal in delivering the first comprehensive results of our modelling and appraisal activities that were launched on 14 January 2014, entitled Britain's infrastructure for the 21st century. This report has been very well received by academics and practitioners in government and industry as illustrated by the following quote by HM Treasury. " The ITRC interim report on future infrastructure provision is an authoritative source of information explaining future challenges and possible policy responses that we are consulting for the National Infrastructure Plan 2014." Dawn Cameron | Infrastructure policy and delivery branch head | Infrastructure UK | 
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/research/
 
Title NISMOD-LP - A national model of the long term performance of interdependent infrastructure systems 
Description NISMOD-LP integrates engineering-based simulation models of demand and capacity for infrastructure services in the energy-, transport-, water-, waste water-, and solid waste sectors of Great Britain's National Infrastructure system. Linkages between the sectors are introduced via cross-sectoral demand for services (e.g. energy generation requires water, waste water treatment requires energy, etc.). The technical implementation of these five interconnected simulation models is based upon the NISMOD-DB facility that provides a unified scenario input framework for all the infrastructure sectors and acts as output repository, post-processing facility and allows to tackle feedbacks between the infrastructure sectors. NISMOD-LP allows the assessment of national cross-sectoral strategies for infrastructure provision based upon a multi-dimensional performance metric, including cost of service, carbon intensity, supply security, etc. NISMOD-RV NISMOD-RV A national model of risks and vulnerability in national infrastructure systems. NISMOD-RV is based on a detailed hierarchical representation of the real-world assets and networks of the energy-, transport-, and water infrastructure sectors. Stochastic climate projections and hydrological modeling is used to derive profiles of natural hazards like storms and floods that threaten the operation of infrastructure assets and systems. These profiles are applied in a risk analysis framework to derive robustness and vulnerability of existing and hypothetical configurations of national infrastructure networks. Therewith NISMOD-RV allows assessing different national strategies for infrastructure provision based on their risk-footprint under climate change. NISMOD-RD NISMOD-RD A model of regional development and how it adapts to infrastructure provision. NISMOD-RD combines three components: (I) A generic representation of national infrastructure systems as networks facilitating the transport of resources, goods, services, people, and, more generally, externalities of economic activity allows for a further integration of different infrastructure sectors. (II) This generic representation of infrastructure is integrated into a meso-scale model of economic growth and development to assess the role of infrastructure for growth. (III) A spatial interaction model is developed to assess the impact of infrastructure performance on local attractiveness for migration. Combining these three approaches NISMOD-RD can simulate the co-evolution of the socio-economic and the national infrastructure system. NISMOD-DB NISMOD-DB A national database of infrastructure networks, demand and performance. NISMOD-DB combines hundreds of data layers on Great Britain's infrastructure systems within a spatial database framework (using open source languages). It also acts as scenario and output repository for the NISMOD-LP and NISMOD-RV models. The development of innovative algorithms for the identification and synthesis of national scale infrastructure networks from incomplete and unstructured maps completes the foundational character of NISMOD-DB for the ITRC modelling suite. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2012 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The first comprehensive results of our modelling and appraisal activities were launched in January 2014 in a report called 'Britain's infrastructure for the 21st century'. The report aims to answer the questions: What are the options for national infrastructure provision? How might options be put together into a long term national infrastructure strategy? How will they perform in terms of reliability, security of supply and quality of service? How will they perform with respect to environmental impact, in particular greenhouse gas emissions? How much will they cost? The report was the second milestone in the project and describes the use of NISMOD-LP (supported by data held in NISMOD-DB) to analyse the performance of long term strategies for infrastructure provision. The framework incorporates the following steps: 1.Generation of ensembles of future scenarios (i.e. plausible situations) of socio- economic and environmental conditions; 2.Generation of a range of interesting, distinct and plausible strategies of future NI provision; 3.Simulation of future demand and capacity in a suite of soft-coupled single sector simulation models, linked to a central infrastructure database (NISMOD-DB); and 4.Evaluation of infrastructure service performance and the uncertainty analysis or robustness of performance of the varying NI strategies across the scenario space, including interdependencies between sectors. This report has been very well received by academics and practitioners in government and industry as illustrated by the following quote by HM Treasury. " The ITRC interim report on future infrastructure provision is an authoritative source of information explaining future challenges and possible policy responses that we are consulting for the National Infrastructure Plan 2014." Dawn Cameron | Infrastructure policy and delivery branch head | Infrastructure UK | 
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/research/britains-infrastructure-for-the-21st-century/
 
Title NISMOD-RD A model of regional development and how it adapts to infrastructure provision. 
Description NISMOD-RD combines three components: (I) A generic representation of national infrastructure systems as networks facilitating the transport of resources, goods, services, people, and, more generally, externalities of economic activity allows for a further integration of different infrastructure sectors. (II) This generic representation of infrastructure is integrated into a meso-scale model of economic growth and development to assess the role of infrastructure for growth. (III) A spatial interaction model is developed to assess the impact of infrastructure performance on local attractiveness for migration. Combining these three approaches NISMOD-RD can simulate the co-evolution of the socio-economic and the national infrastructure system. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2012 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The final milestone of the ITRC programme of research will be developed in Years 4 and 5 will make use of methods, tools and databases being completed in NISMOD-LP, NISMOD-RV and NISMOD-DB with emerging insights from NISMOD-RD. It will be able to answer questions that were not tractable in the previous interim results report, representing a landmark in quantified assessment of national infrastructure systems. 
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/nismod/
 
Title NISMOD-RV- A national model of risks and vulnerability in national infrastructure systems. 
Description NISMOD-RV is based on a detailed hierarchical representation of the real-world assets and networks of the energy-, transport-, and water infrastructure sectors. Stochastic climate projections and hydrological modeling is used to derive profiles of natural hazards like storms and floods that threaten the operation of infrastructure assets and systems. These profiles are applied in a risk analysis framework to derive robustness and vulnerability of existing and hypothetical configurations of national infrastructure networks. There with NISMOD-RV allows assessing different national strategies for infrastructure provision based on their risk-footprint under climate change. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2013 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact NISMOD-RV has probably produced the highest number of immediate impacts for ITRC. Network Rail - ITRC has assembled different datasets to build a representation of the interdependent railway infrastructure with input from Network Rail. Using such datasets the ITRC has done a vulnerability study on Great Britain's rail network. The focus of the analysis is to look at the failures in the railway network that are initiated due to supporting systems such as signalling and monitoring systems, electrification, heating, lighting, among others. The effect of such failures have been analysed in terms of the passenger trip disruptions across the entire networks. The ITRC has and is testing multiple failure scenarios due to random shock events and extreme flood events to provide am understanding of the risk and resilience of GB's railway network. In the near future different avenues of dissemination of this work are being explored. These include, among others, discussions with Network Rail, and presentations at the EPSRC Transport Systems Catapult seminar series. JBA Trust - Bridge Scour Analysis collaboration. In this analysis JBA is looking at probabilistic failure scenarios for railway bridge failure due to extreme floods. The ITRC team is building demand loss estimates for these different failure scenarios. This will produce a flood risk analysis for the railway infrastructure. Since JBA has been directly contracted by Network Rail to assess the risks on their bridges, the ITRC involvement gives us this opportunity to engage strategically with Network Rail in order to provide advice on their network asset management plans. National Grid - Spatial modelling for Future Energy Scenarios. ITRC is embarking upon a knowledge exchange secondment with National Grid to address their need for spatial modelling of renewable technologies, embedded generation capacities and the customer demand projections in the long-term. National Grid requires a spatial analysis tool capable of integrating different data sources, assigning transmission and distribution level assets to key renewable technologies (such as solar, wind and photovoltaic installations) and aggregating outputs from distribution regions to the grid. National Grid then aims to use the outputs to provide a demand allocation, by area, for different technologies and use these as inputs for their other models for forecasting spatial and temporal energy capacity/generation and demand changes for different forecasting scenarios. This helps National Grid's Future Energy Scenarios models by developing a better understanding of demands on the grid across different stakeholder regions, enhancing their investment efficiency and effectiveness of operations, and providing greater clarity around investment decisions. National Grid has identified the ITRC's in-house capabilities and expertise in spatial network analysis for satisfying their requirements for the spatial analysis tool. This work enables the ITRC to create a large impact on a national utility provider and expected to lead to further collaborations. Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) - The ITRC has been supporting the CCC's analysis of infrastructure vulnerability as part of its analysis of adaptation of infrastructure to the impacts of climate change. Science Advisory Group in an Emergency (SAGE) - During the winter 2013/14 floods ITRC provided evidence to the SAGE on the potential impacts of flooding on infrastructure in the Thames Valley. National Adaptation Programme: ITRC have been identified as contributing to the 'Infrastructure interdependencies' objectives in the National Adaptation Programme, by "enhancing systems thinking around interdependencies and how associated climate change risks can be managed". Worcestershire County Council - Case study being developed with Worcestershire County Council on geohazard assessment in relation to infrastructure and future planned development - investigate the development of a national framework document. Cranfield are currently producing a geohazard assessment of the county. The outputs of the probabilistic subsidence modelling will also help to aid future county-scale infrastructure planning. A conceptual landslide model for the county is being tested, currently undergoing validation. It is then likely that this could be expanded to the rest of the UK. Lincolnshire County Council - A soil-related geohazard assessment of Lincolnshire was undertaken for Lincolnshire County Council's highways department, using Cranfield's geohazard datasets. These were intersected with the county's local road network and condition surveys using a GIS. Conclusions were that areas prone to clay-related subsidence, exacerbated in drought conditions, are detrimental to road surface quality. Lincolnshire Highways Alliance has since used Cranfield's research to aid allocation of £600k of road maintenance fund. 
 
Description Association of British Insurers 
Organisation Association of British Insurers (ABI)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
Start Year 2006
 
Description Bridge scour analysis with JBA Trust 
Organisation JBA Trust
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The ITRC is part of a study on the analysis of railway bridge failures due to scouring. JBA Trust has been contracted by Network Rail to undertake this work and are leading on it. In this analysis JBA is looking at probabilistic failure scenarios for railway bridge failure due to extreme floods. The ITRC team is building demand loss estimates for these different failure scenarios. This will produce a flood risk analysis for the railway infrastructure.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Collaboration on impacts of heat for thermal discomfort on the London Underground. 
Organisation Transport for London
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The ARCADIA team used outputs from the spatial urban Weather Generator to provide a risk based analysis of the future number of days when passengers travelling on sections of the Tube could be subjected to thermal discomfort under future scenarios of climate change, and the potential number of passengers dissatisfied.
Collaborator Contribution LU provided platform temperature sensor data which could be used to infer external to internal temperatures, as well as outputs from a passenger thermal comfort model.
Impact Jenkins, K., Gilsby, M., Hall, J., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C. (2014) Implications of climate change for thermal discomfort on underground railways. Transportation Research Part D. Transport and Environment. 30: 1-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2014.05.002.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration on the implication of climate change for future surface water flood risk, impacts, and options for adaptation. 
Organisation Greater London Authority (GLA)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Collaboration on the implication of climate change for future surface water flood risk and impacts, and options for adaptation. The ARCADIA team have used these maps to assess future flood risk, economic impacts, and options for adaptation, based on outputs from the spatial urban Weather Generator.
Collaborator Contribution The GLA provided Drain London surface water flood risk maps.
Impact No impact yet
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with ARUP 
Organisation Arup Group
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Collaboration to raise awareness of ITRC models and tools in Arup, and developing joint ideas for how to exploit the ITRC research in Arup's business.
Collaborator Contribution Discussions on how to support ITRC future research stages
Impact ARUP is interested in supporting future ITRC research
Start Year 2012
 
Description Collaboration with Cambridge University 
Organisation Centre for Risk Studies
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Established temporary working contracts and have agreed to contribute around 2 weeks of our time between November and January.
Collaborator Contribution Established temporary working contracts and have agreed to contribute around 2 weeks of our time between November and January. The following researchers were involved in this. Michelle Tuveson: mtuveson2012@gmail.com Eireann Leverett: eireann.leverett@cantab.net Louise Pryor: louise@louisepryor.com Edward Oughton: e.oughton@jbs.cam.ac.uk
Impact Established temporary working contracts and have agreed to contribute around 2 weeks of our time between November and January
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories, Alburquerque, USA 
Organisation Sandia Laboratories
Country United States of America 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution On going collaboration with Sandia National Labs as part of the Clean Water for All intiative to start developing process-based models for interdependent network risk analysis. Dr Raghav Pant and Scott Thacker spent a week in training at their labs.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with Sustainable Infrastructure Practice 
Organisation United Nations Office for Project Services
Department Sustainable Infrastructure Practice
Country United States of America 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Initiated meeting with UNOPS to explore opportunities for collaboration
Collaborator Contribution ITRC had a meeting between the Office of the Quartet Representative (Rt. Hon. Mr Tony Blair) and our Executive Director Ms. Grete Faremo.  Here, particular reference was made to the reconstruction efforts within Gaza.  Notwithstanding these discussions, UNOPS initiated to make a connection with ITRC and explore opportunities for knowledge sharing and to see if there are potential avenues for collaboration.
Impact Assessed the extent to which the ITRC methodologies and system models might fit the situation in Gaza, and how we might most effectivley provide an 'advisory role', possibly alongside partners in the UK government and engineering consultancies with whom ITRC is already closely collaborating.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Collaboration with the Departmenr for Transport, UK Government 
Organisation Government of the UK
Department Department of Transport
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Partnership for ITRC to map out national transport infrastructure 'hotspots' analysis for the UK Governent Department for Transport, making use of its unique modelling capability. The hotspots analysis aims to assess critical infrastructure locations in the UK.
Collaborator Contribution The hotspots analysis is mapping out critical infrastructure locations, where criticality is measured in terms of the number of customers directly or indirectly dependent on an asset. An extensive infrastructure database comprising thousands of assets forming interdependent national-scale networks was built to look at the nation-wide criticality.
Impact Currently producing a detailed map of the critical itransport infrastructure locations in the UK
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration with the Rivers Trust 
Organisation Rivers Trust
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The research project will contribute funding to the RiversTrust
Collaborator Contribution The collaboration will enhance the MaRIUS project's outreach to the River Trust's network of catchment based stakeholders and practitioners. The Rivers Trust will give opportunities for the MaRIUS project to hold workshops and interactive sessions, present at conferences, and provide articles for the Trust's newsletters.
Impact The collaboration has just started.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Construction Industry Council 
Organisation Construction Industry Council
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
Start Year 2006
 
Description Department for Transport 
Organisation Government of the UK
Department Department of Transport
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Members of the ITRC Transport sector regularly meet with senior staff of the Department for Transport to discuss the intersections between ITRC models and analytic tools with the work done by the department. Potential for informing HS2 modelling and input in some of the strategies being developed within ITRC to take into consideration regulatory issues suchs as. e. g. EU emissions legislation. We are working towards organising an ITRC secondment of a researcher from the Transport Sector in WS1 at the DfT .
Collaborator Contribution Members from all different transport modalities ( air, freight, rail, motoraways, cycling, etc) within the DfT participtae in this series of meeting to evaluate and validate ITRC models. They are very interested in pursuing a secondment with ITRC.
Impact The DfT provided key input to the modellers in the ITRC Transport Sector for the National infrastructure assessment: Analysis of options for infrastructure provision in Great Britain - Interim results, January 2014. The report has been very well received globally. According to a senior HM Treasury official, " The ITRC interim report on future infrastructure provision is an authoritative source of information explaining future challenges and possible policy responses that we are consulting for the National Infrastructure Plan 2014." Dawn Cameron | Infrastructure policy and delivery branch head | Infrastructure UK |
Start Year 2012
 
Description Environment Agency 
Organisation Government of the UK
Department Environment Agency
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
Start Year 2004
 
Description ITRC and GNS joint proposal 
Organisation National Health Service (England)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Scott Thacker working on a joint proposal with GNS Science (Rob Buxton- Senior Scientist at GNS) to develop a strategic partnership between NZ and the UK to understand and reduce the risks of failure in interdependent critical national infrastructures
Collaborator Contribution NA
Impact A joint proposal with GNS Science (Rob Buxton- Senior Scientist at GNS) to develop a strategic partnership between NZ and the UK to understand and reduce the risks of failure in interdependent critical national infrastructures
Start Year 2015
 
Description ITRC and the University of Oxford Mathematics Institute Network Group 
Organisation University of Oxford
Department Mathematical Institute Oxford
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We are developing a closer collaboration between the ITRC and the University of Oxford Mathematics Institute Network Group. The ITRC should benefit from mathematical/theoretical exploration of infrastructure network data and the Network Group should benefit from access to ITRC's new/novel data sets.. We have started a collaboration by allowing them access to railway network data - this will be used for a Masters Thesis student , commencing beginning of May 2014.We expect the collaboration to grow by utilizing other network datasets; electricity/ liquid fuels/ road etc. They have postoc time available: 1.5 years, who, potentially can dedicate a large amount of time to ITRC/infrastructure data. We (ITRC) can expect interaction and feedback from their group - steering their research towards questions that interest us; network centrality, communities etc. We can expect citations/ co-production.
Start Year 2014
 
Description ITRC infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium and ARUP 
Organisation Infrastructure UK
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution ITRC has most successfully examined dependencies and vulnerabilities in national infrastructure. It is tied in with Infrastructure UK, which is beginning to use the output. While the work of the ITRC so far has focussed on the UK, in later stages, they are considering applying the methodology to other countries. The project reached the end of its first five years, and has geared up for its next phase, which will include more external collaboration and commercial partnerships.
Collaborator Contribution You may already be aware, Arup have been supporting the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) for a number of years, including funding of a PhD. Arup has committed to and supported the programme thus far and wants to remain involved. Juliet Mian and Tim Chapman are coordinating Arup's input with the help of the Arup research community.
Impact Continued partnership and collaboration
Start Year 2014
 
Description Infrastructure UK , HM Treasury- Critical infrastructure hotspot analysis. 
Organisation HM Treasury
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Working rapidly over the summer of 2013, the ITRC delivered a national infrastructure 'hotspots' analysis for Infrastructure UK, making use of its unique modelling capability. The hotspots analysis identified critical infrastructure locations, where criticality is measured in terms of the number of customers directly or indirectly dependent on an asset. An extensive infrastructure database comprising 200,000 assets forming interdependent national-scale networks was built to look at the nation-wide criticality of individual infrastructures. The final analysis involving national-scale networks for electricity transmission and distribution, gas, trunk road and rail demonstrated that interconnectivity between infrastructure networks could result in failure at a particular location having cascading effects and disproportionate consequences of customer disruptions. The work was well received and has set up a pathway for continued dialogue between ITRC and Infrastructure UK.
Collaborator Contribution Provided the ideal setting to test and validate the ITRC methods, tools and datasets. It was also fundamental to establish the project's reputation with policy-makers and practitioners
Impact - A report - Further engagement to establish a secondment program between treasury and 3 universities within ITRC - Access to other Treasury and Cabinet departments
Start Year 2013
 
Description Input in Reconstruction of Gaza and Syria 
Organisation Office of the Quartet Representative (Rt. Hon. Mr Tony Blair)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Discussion and input on planning and designing reconstruction of infrastructure in Gaza, Syria and other disaster zones
Collaborator Contribution This is a very prestigious and honourable invitation for collaboration and will contribute to further consolidate the ITRC reputation globally
Impact Ongoing
Start Year 2014
 
Description Input in Reconstruction of Gaza and Syria 
Organisation United Nations (UN)
Country Global 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Discussion and input on planning and designing reconstruction of infrastructure in Gaza, Syria and other disaster zones
Collaborator Contribution This is a very prestigious and honourable invitation for collaboration and will contribute to further consolidate the ITRC reputation globally
Impact Ongoing
Start Year 2014
 
Description Lincolnshire County Council soil-related geohazard assessment 
Organisation Lincolnshire County Council
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution A soil-related geohazard assessment of Lincolnshire was undertaken for Lincolnshire County Council's highways department, using Cranfield's geohazard datasets. These were intersected with the county's local road network and condition surveys using a GIS. Conclusions were that areas prone to clay-related subsidence, exacerbated in drought conditions, are detrimental to road surface quality. Lincolnshire Highways Alliance has since used Cranfield's research to aid allocation of £600k of road maintenance fund.
Collaborator Contribution They provided a setting and data to validate the research
Impact Lincolnshire Highways Alliance has since used Cranfield's research to aid allocation of £600k of road maintenance fund. It has also produced a paper
Start Year 2013
 
Description Network Rail Ltd 
Organisation Network Rail Ltd
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Private 
Start Year 2004
 
Description Ordnance Survey 
Organisation Ordnance Survey
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
Start Year 2007
 
Description Railway network development and vulnerability analysis 
Organisation Network Rail Ltd
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution In this work the ITRC has assembled different datasets to build a representation of the interdependent railway infrastructure. These datasets include the OS Meridian data (provided by David Alderson) and other publicly available datasets that provide information on the usage of the railway network. Following a meeting with Network Rail officials data of some of the railway assets was provided to the ITRC, using with we have now built a mapping of different assets and infrastructures that show interdependency characteristics for the railways. Following the buildup of the railway infrastructure we have done a vulnerability study on network. This work is currently being documented into a research paper.
Start Year 2014
 
Description Research visit to New Zealand 
Organisation University of Auckland
Country New Zealand 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Developed collaboration with the National Infrastructure Unit, GNS Science and the University of Auckland to understand the risks of critical infratsructure failure in New Zealand.
Collaborator Contribution Hosted by Suzanne Wilkinson at the University of Auckland
Impact Developed collaboration with the National Infrastructure Unit, GNS Science and the University of Auckland to understand the risks of critical infratsructure failure in New Zealand.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Scottish and Southern Energy SSE plc 
Organisation Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Private 
Start Year 2004
 
Description Supporting the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) analysis of infrastructure vulnerability 
Organisation Committee on Climate Change (CCC)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The ITRC has been supporting the CCC's analysis of infrastructure vulnerability as part of its analysis of adaptation of infrastructure to the impacts of climate change.
Collaborator Contribution The CCC provided a setting for the ITRC to test and validate its research
Impact A report
Start Year 2013
 
Description The Scottish Government 
Organisation Scottish Government
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
Start Year 2006
 
Description UK Climate Impacts Programme 
Organisation UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Private 
Start Year 2006
 
Description Worcestershire County Council - case study on geohazard assessment 
Organisation Worcestershire County Council
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Cranfield University are working on probabilistic subsidence modelling across Worcestershire to aid county-scale infrastructure planning. A model to examine possible landslides is also being tested and undergoing validation. The models re being considered to be expanded to cover the rest of the UK.
Collaborator Contribution Cranfield University are working on probabilistic subsidence modelling across Worcestershire to aid county-scale infrastructure planning.
Impact The models re being considered to be expanded to cover the rest of the UK.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Worcestershire case study 
Organisation Worcestershire County Council
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Case study being developed with Worcestershire County Council on geohazard assessment in relation to infrastructure and future planned development ? investigate the development of a national framework document.
Start Year 2013
 
Title National Infrastructure Systems Modelling - NISMOD 
Description NISMOD (National Infrastructure Systems MODel) is the UK's first national infrastructure system-of-systems modelling platform and database. It includes modelling results from the first national infrastructure long term planning tool, created under the first phase of the ITRC, and currently being utilised to inform a national infrastructure needs assessment for the National Infrastructure Commission. The NISMOD platform is made up of four sections: NISMOD-LP - Long term performance of interdependent infrastructure systems Integrated engineering-based simulation models of demand and capacity for infrastructure services in the energy, transport, water, waste water, and solid waste sectors of Great Britain's National Infrastructure system. Links between the sectors are included through cross-sectoral demand for services, e.g. energy generation requires water, waste water treatment requires energy, etc. The interconnected simulation models are run from a single input framework and a single database (NISMOD-DB), acting as an repository for both the model inputs and outputs and as the reporting warehouse and post-processing facility. NISMOD-LP allows the assessment of national cross-sectoral strategies for infrastructure provision based upon a multi-dimensional performance metric, including cost of service, carbon intensity, supply security, etc. NISMOD-RV- Risks and vulnerability in national infrastructure systems A detailed hierarchical representation of the real-world assets and networks of the energy, transport, and water infrastructure sectors. Stochastic climate projections and hydrological modelling derive profiles of natural hazards such as storms and floods that threaten infrastructure assets and systems. A risk analysis framework uses the profiles to examine the robustness and vulnerability of existing and hypothetical configurations of national infrastructure networks. NISMOD-RV allows assessing different national strategies for infrastructure provision based on their risk-footprint under climate change. NISMOD-RD- Regional development and how it adapts to infrastructure provision A generic representation of national infrastructure systems as networks, assisting the transport of resources, goods, services, people, and the externalities of economic activity, allowing for further integration of different infrastructure sectors. The generic representation is integrated into a meso-scale model of economic growth and development to assess the role of infrastructure for growth. A spatial interaction model to assess the impact of infrastructure performance on local attractiveness for migration. Combining these approaches ,can simulate the co-evolution of the socio-economic and the national infrastructure system. NISMOD-DB - Infrastructure networks, demand and performance Combines hundreds of data layers on Great Britain's infrastructure systems within a spatial database framework (using open source languages). A scenario and output repository for the NISMOD-LP and NISMOD-RV models. Includes nnovative algorithms for the identification and synthesis of national scale infrastructure networks from incomplete and unstructured maps. NISMOD-INT - A generic framework for international applications of NISMOD A series of open-source analysis tools known for the application of evidence-based decision making in a diverse range of possible international settings. Providing recipient countries with the capacity to develop and assess alternative infrastructure transition strategies for meeting their future sustainable development goals. Capable of combining rapidly emerging global datasets with country-specific engineering insights and on-the-ground assessments. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The following organisations/ agencies have been utilizing the NISMOD tools as an analytical framework to inform their decision-making processes: 1- National Needs Assessment The National Needs Assessment (NNA) was an Institution of Civil Engineers initiative to examine the UK's likely infrastructure needs in the coming decades - set against uncertainties such as climate change, population growth, global energy prices and economic change. It also looked at the way infrastructure networks relate to, and depend on, one another and how this will impact on the performance of networks in the future. We provided the primary evidence for the NNA through our modelling framework for analysing the relationships between and among infrastructure networks. Our scenarios set out the main demand drivers on infrastructure - population growth, climate change, technology, economic trends. The National Needs Assessment sets out a vision for how infrastructure delivers economic growth, thriving communities and embraces technology to deliver a low carbon future. It is a blueprint for the National Infrastructure Commission's (NIC) long term infrastructure assessment. 2- United Nations Office for Project Services Working with the Government of Norway, ITRC and UNOPS, an operational arm of the United Nations, we are pioneering modelling tools, support and guidance to governments to enable robust future planning on national infrastructure. The tools will include assistance for long-term planning, focused for development projects, and designed to allow governments to efficiently use existing assets, prioritise new projects, and use financial resources to deliver maximum socio-economic benefits to local communities. 5- National Grid - spatial modelling for Future Energy Scenarios National Grid used the NISMOD tool to forecast use of of renewable technologies, embedded generation capacities and customer demand projections in the long-term. National Grid needed an analysis tool to: integrate different data sources assign transmission and distribution level assets to key renewable technologies (such as solar, wind and photovoltaic installations) aggregate outputs from distribution regions to the grid. The output was used with National Grid's own Future Energy Scenarios forecasting models to provide a demand allocation, by area, for different technologies and scenarios. 4- JBA Trust - bridge scour analysis JBA Trust looked at probabilistic scenarios for railway bridge failure due to extreme floods. Our team used the NISMOD-RV software to build demand loss estimates for these different failure scenarios to produce a flood risk analysis for railway infrastructure. Our work with JBA Trust produced recommendations to Network Rail on their network asset management plans. 5 - Infrastructure UK (IUK), UK Treasury The'hotspot' analysis identified critical infrastructure locations (pdf, 200 KB), measured by the number of directly or indirectly dependent customers for Infrastructure UK (IUK), a unit within HM Treasury. Through an extensive database of details from interdependent networks, we examined the nation-wide crisis points of individual infrastructures. The final analysis involved national-scale networks for electricity transmission and distribution, gas, trunk road and rail, and demonstrated that failure at a particular location could result in a cascade of effects and disruption. 
URL http://www.itrc.org.uk/nismod/#.WMbLiH8qtdg
 
Description Infrastructure Resilience in an Interdependent World 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ICIF worked very closely with ARCC, CIRIA, iBUILD and ITRC to help put together an event - Infrastructure Resilience in an Interdependent World. The event took place on the 2nd July and include 4 research workshops on several topics. It captured the value of resilience on questions like; how can we make the business case to invest in resilience; how can we make use of data to identify and manage critical interdependencies?

The issue of scale: interface between local, national and international scales
Value of considering a service-oriented approach to help with planning, identifying interdependencies and quantifying the risks of infrastructure failure
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.ciria.org/CIRIA/Navigation/Events/Event_Display.aspx?EventKey=E15212
 
Description ARCADIA factsheet series 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact Provided concise and key information to non-academic audience

Increase in requests for further information on the project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/pdfs/Arcadia_factsheets.pdf
 
Description ARCADIA stakeholder meeting (London) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact Talks and presentations sparked questions and discussion. It highlighted r3esearch which could be used to inform policy and further areas of research and use for the models were identified.

Stakeholders asked for a series of factsheets which were generated. Follow up meetings were proposed with the GLA and DrainLondon to look at surface water flood risk. Links to the London climate change Partnership were made.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Chief Scientific Advisor Seminars 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The session included resilience leads for each mode. There was Q&A session at the end of the presentation. There was an immediate follow-on session with modal resilience leads and provided opportunities to refer to future work and make some connections which could be capitalised on.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Environmental Audit Committee - notice of hearing on Climate Change Adaption inquiry 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Environmental Audit Committee - notice of hearing on Climate Change Adaption inquiry
The Environmental Audit Committee held another public evidence session on its Climate Change Adaption inquiry at 2.15 pm on Wednesday 7 January 2015 in the Thatcher Room, Portcullis House.

The Committee took evidence from:

• Tony Glover, Director of Policy, Energy Networks Association
• Professor Jim Hall, Director of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, and Director of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium
• Allen Creedy, Chair, Energy, Water & Environment Policy Unit, Federation of Small Businesses
• John Dora, Chair, Infrastructure Operators' Adaptation Forum
• Brian Smith, Member of expert panel on Review of the Resilience of the Transport Network to Extreme Weather Events.

This was the fourth session in this inquiry. The Committee will examine the impacts of climate change for 'networks'-roads, railways, energy supplies, etc-including for businesses that rely on those networks, as well as the adaptation challenges for making networks more resilient.

Witnesses
Energy Networks Association, Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium, Federation of Small Businesses, Infrastructure Operators Adaptation Forum, and Review of the Resilience of the Transport Network to Extreme Weather Events
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f9aa8180-3c1a-456a-9ead-d989b1b4f8ca
 
Description Government must grasp climate change adaptation challenge 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Environmental Audit Committee publish report calling for flood resistant measures for new housing estates.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/environmental-audit-commi...
 
Description Greater London Authority / Environment Agency: Supporting stakeholders from the GLA and EA in developing adaptation pathways to increased heat risk and drought in London. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact Sharing of knowledge and input to modelling activities is helping to guide and support stakeholders from the GLA and EA in developing adaptation pathways in response to increased heat risk and drought in London.

Adaptation pathways are being developed, modelled and tested based on information, needs, and criteria of policy makers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity
 
Description HM Treasury National Infrastructure Plan 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Dawn Cameron, Branch Head of Infrastructure UK was quoted as saying "The ITRC interim report on future infrastructure provision is an authoritative source of information explaining future challenges and possible policy responses"

Views of ITRC was mentioned in HM Treasury National Infrastructure Plan
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/381884/2902895_NationalInf...
 
Description House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee Evidence Hearing: Home energy efficiency and demand reduction 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact In this session the Energy and Climate Change Committee assessed a range of proposals for future energy efficiency schemes. A variety of issues will be explored, including:

• Addressing the balance between obligations, grants and regulations
• Future of pay-as-you-save and targeting the 'able-to-pay'
• Future of the supplier obligation
• Tackling fuel poverty and targeting the 'hard to reach'
• Local authorities taking a greater role in delivering energy efficiency
• Driving demand for energy efficiency
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion of Designing and Building Next Generation Infrastructure with Guy Dixon, Network Infrastucture National Architecture Pty Ltd; Lauren Cook, Carnegie Mellon; Jim Hall, University of Oxford
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://vbi.vt.edu/isngi/agenda
 
Description New piece on EPSRC website entitled Big Data' research prevents cracking up 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Big Data' research prevents cracking up' was published in the ETRC website. Further deployment of the research to maximise the cost benefits for other County Council areas are being developed. The rail network is also benefitting from the wider impact of the work to reduce damage and consequent delays.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Oxford Impact Video on WS2 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A youtube video was made to highlight Oxford's Environmental Change Institute work in analysing the risks to the nation's infrastructure.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUIkVT0QQVQ&feature=youtu.be
 
Description Presentation on the comparative dimension of the research (NI, England, Wales, Scotland): 'Comparison "verkehrt": governing water scarcity across four polities in the UK', Bettina Lange, 16/10/14, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, Internal Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact The presentation shared knowledge with fellow researchers, and generated discussion and questions over the findings to date.

Enhanced awareness
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Press release on heat risk in London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Sparked wider interest in the ARCADIA project, requests for information, copies of journal papers, and contributions to news websites and magazines reporting on the press release.

Increased requests for information and copies of journal papers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2014-04-15-future-heat-waves-pose-risk-population-greater-london
 
Description Special issue of the journal of infrastrucutre 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This special issue addresses the current gaps in understanding the link between infrastructure systems and economic prosperity, including challenging issues of the micro and macroeconomics of infrastructure from a variety of perspectives and the need to prioritise the appraisal of the economic case for infrastructure projects and programmes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description UK university develops ground-breaking GIS model that saves money by predicting where potholes will occur 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact An innovative, new geographic information system (GIS) model, developed by the UK's Cranfield University, has been used successfully by Lincolnshire County Council to predict where potholes will frequently reoccur in roads, thereby saving money on expensive resurfacing. Funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), the UK's main agency for funding research in engineering and the physical sciences, Cranfield's work was part of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news.php?NewsID=71337
 
Description Valuing infrastructure spend: supplementary guidance to the Green Book 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Supplementary guidance to the HM Treasury Green Book on Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/483278/Valuation_of_energy...