ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision making using Integrated Assessment

Lead Research Organisation: University of Oxford
Department Name: Geography - SoGE

Abstract

Urban areas are concentrations of vulnerability to climate change. Examples of impacts of climate change in urban areas include excessive heat, water scarcity and flooding. Whilst it is impossible to attribute individual extreme events to climate change, recent events including the 2003 heat wave that struck Paris and other European cities, and hurricane Katrina in New Orleans have illustrated the potential for large scale weather-related disruption of urban function, from which it may take months or years to recover. In recognition of the significance of climate change in urban areas, from the points of view of both adaptation and mitigation, in 2005 the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research launched a new research programme on Engineering Urban Systems . Building on the previous success of the Tyndall Centre in interdisciplinary integrated assessment, the Tyndall Centre Cities Programme brought together research expertise from seven universities (four of which are represented in the ARCADIA project) and a high profile stakeholder group to develop an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) that simulates long term changes in urban areas and can be used as a platform for testing the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies. The ARCADIA project will launch an ambitious new phase of development of the Tyndall Centre UIAF in order to understand better the vulnerability and resilience of urban areas. The ARCADIA project is highly interdisciplinary and involves input from an influential group of stakeholders from business and local and central government, with interests in planning, infrastructure, the built environment and climate change adaptation and mitigation. This group will work with the research team to ensure that the project is orientated towards user needs. Indeed the first research task will involve close work with stakeholders to understand how the advance modelling tools being developed in the Tyndall Centre can best inform decision making. Task 2 will identify the various direct and indirect modes in which climate impacts disrupt urban function and will go on to examine potential adaptation mechanisms and barriers to adaptation. In Task 3 the Tyndall Centre will team up with the Climatic Research Unit at UEA and the Met Office Hadley Centre to develop new probabilistic scenarios for urban areas that are consistent with UKCIP08. Task 4 will model the relationship between climate impacts and the urban economy, in order to identify how the economy may be disrupted by climate change. By analysing change in the economy through time and interactions between economic sectors, we will understand better how the urban economy can be made more resilient. Task 5 will combine the economic model developed in Task 4 with a new model of the spatial planning of buildings and infrastructure in urban areas. As well as identifying concentrations of vulnerability, this will enable the simulation of potential redesign of the built environment under different scenarios of climate and other drivers such as employment and changes to the transport system.The final research task will, working with stakeholders, use the new understanding of the vulnerability of urban systems to analyse how adaptation of urban areas can enhance resilience over a range of timescales. The objective will be to make practical proposals for 'adaptation pathways' for cities over the 21st Century to respond strategically to the challenges of flooding, water scarcity and extremes of heat.

Publications


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Related Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Award Value
EP/G061254/1 06/07/2009 07/02/2011 £650,883
EP/G061254/2 Transfer EP/G061254/1 07/02/2011 17/12/2012 £278,723
 
Description Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to economic and social impacts of climate change, such as floods, droughts and excessive heat, due to their high concentrations of people and assets. Moreover, the increasing temperatures due to global warming are exacerbate in cities due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In recent years cities globally have been developing strategies for responding to the risks of climate change. However, they often lack the evidence needed to make the case for and prioritise adaptation actions. The ARCADIA project has developed a new system of models for analysing climate risks and assessing the performance of options for adapting to climate change. We have used London as a case study and worked with stakeholders to ensure that the analysis is relevant to the climate risks that they face. The ARCADIA project has: 1. Reviewed adaptation governance arrangements in London, in order to understand the decision making context. 2. Developed a coupled system of models for analysing climate risks at a city scale. The Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) incorporates (i) A probabilistic model of climate change in cities, which includes the effects of waste heat and urban land cover on temperatures; (ii) An assessment of the direct impacts of extreme heat and flooding on people, buildings and infrastructure; and (iii) An assessment of the potentially disruptive indirect effects of climatic extremes on the urban economy. 3. Tested the potential effectiveness of adaptation measures to reduce climate risks to people, buildings, infrastructure and the economy. This modelling arrangement has enabled integrative analysis of the relationships between climate, the built environment, infrastructure systems, the urban economy and climate. The analysis is novel in a number of important respects: 1. A Spatial Weather Generator has been developed that provides time series of weather variables at a 5 km and daily and hourly resolution and includes spatial correlation of heat and rainfall. The Weather Generator is compatible with, and a valuable addition to, the UKCP09 climate scenarios. 2. A probabilistic methodology has been used to generate risk estimates that incorporate the effects of uncertainties in climate and vulnerability. Whilst most urban studies have focussed upon climate impacts, we are now able to generate genuine probabilistic estimates of climate risks. 3. A complete model of the urban transport network has been used to estimate the potential disruptive effect of climate impacts on transport infrastructure, for example due to flooding or rail buckling in excessive heat. The transport model covers public and private transport modes. A dynamic model of demand, service quality and switching between transport modes has been implemented to simulate the effects of transport disruptions on passenger flows. 4. A new model of future land use change, extending to the edge of the commuter belt around London, has been used to assess potential changes in vulnerability to climate change. Driven by changes in population and employment, the land use model provides an indication of the spatial distribution of future employment (by industrial sector) and population (by socio-economic class) within London. 5. A novel input-output representation has been used to represent the effects of climate related disasters on the economy, and subsequent economic recovery from those disasters. The model represents the effects of disruption to supply chains and consumer demand that would result from a very severe event such as a widespread flood.
Exploitation Route During the research programme we have held meetings and workshop with decision-makers in London to promote uptake of the research. Further interactions with stakeholders and researchers in related EPSRC projects have been facilitated by the Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate Coordination Network http://www.arcc-cn.org.uk/. The results help highlight potential benefits of adaptation, to a range of weather related impacts, to help guide decision making across a range of agencies. Risk based information on the potential economic and social impacts of surface water flooding, and assessments of the effectiveness of adaptation measures, will be highly relevant if policy makers are to address concerns about the impact of such flooding in the longer-term, and strive to implement more effective and efficient adaptation measures. This work will be of interest to the on-going DrainLondon project being led by the GLA.

The framework enables the exploration of a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios and their implications, providing a whole-system approach to assessing adaptation strategies to enhance future urban sustainability. The framework provides decision support tools for adaptation of urban areas, and demonstrates how these tools can be used to develop strategies for transitions to resilience at a city scale. The framework has been developed for London but has the potential to be applied to other cities. The method allows for continued investigation of different scenarios and adaptation pathways to be explored. Through future collaboration updated and more detailed data can be incorporated to extend and deepen the analysis conducted.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Transport
URL http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/arcadia/
 
Description Research has been cited, and continues to be cited, in numerous government reports and reviews; evidence has been provided to government committees; work continues to be presented to stakeholders to share information and inform decision making, for example providing data for those involved in neighbourhood planning; and factsheets and published articles have been used to provide information to academic and non-academic audiences.
First Year Of Impact 2012
Sector Construction,Environment
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services
 
Description Citation in CCRA 2017: Chapter 5 People and the built environment
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-5-People-and-the-built-env...
 
Description Citation in Climate UK, Summary of Climate Change Risks for London
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Citation in London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Citation in final report of the Heat Thresholds Project
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Cittaion in Adaptation Sub-Committee Progress Report
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Provided evidence to Water Resource Management Plan
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description Provided evidence to the environment committee of the London Assembly for climate risks and adaptation in London.
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description Cambridge involvement in ToPDAd FP7 project
Amount € 473,329 (EUR)
Funding ID 308620 
Organisation European Commission (EC) 
Department EC FP7 Collaborative projects
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 10/2012 
End 09/2015
 
Description EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account
Amount £20,287 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/K503769/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2017
 
Description EU FP7 ENHANCE project
Amount £121,499 (GBP)
Funding ID AFRXUE00 
Organisation European Commission (EC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 04/2013 
End 12/2017
 
Description Enhancing the impact of the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC)
Amount £10,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/150107X/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK)
Start 08/2012 
End 03/2013
 
Title ARCADIA Impact Model 
Description As part of the EPSRC funded ARCADIA project a Climate Impact Assessment and Adaptation Module was developed to map spatial patterns of risk, provide information on the probabilities and characteristics of extreme events, related impacts, and implications for adaptation policies. Outputs include: - Probabilities and characteristics of high temperatures, heatwaves, and surface water flooding events, based on the exceedance of user defined thresholds. - Various summary statistics for annual heat related mortality - Percentage of residents at risk from residential overheating discomfort by house types across Greater London and the surrounding region. - Maps of residential overheating risk and mortality risk for Greater London and the surrounding region - Estimates of residential property damage due to surface water flooding - Maps of surface water flood risk and residential property damage estimates - Estimates of the number of days when rail buckles could occur and associated economic impacts - Benefits of different impact specific adaptation options in terms of reduced risks and impacts - Analysis of different adaptation pathways for risk heat and surface water flood risk reduction In the model hazards are defined based on specific temperature and precipitation thresholds for each impact, which can be set in the user interface. These thresholds can be adjusted to represent and assess various impact specific adaptation options, and have more recently been updated to support the analysis of different adaptation pathways. The user can specify a range of different outputs and formats. For example, spatial mapping of impacts can highlight specific populations and assets at risk, and highlight hotspots which will be vulnerable to a range of impacts. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The outputs have been used to support a wide range of publications and reports which have been cited in government reports such as the CCRA 2017. Follow on work through an EPSRC funded IAA has led to the further dissemination of the outputs and renewed interest in the uptake of outputs, with the model code and documentation due to be made freely available online shortly. 
 
Description Collaboration on impacts of heat for thermal discomfort on the London Underground. 
Organisation Transport for London
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The ARCADIA team used outputs from the spatial urban Weather Generator to provide a risk based analysis of the future number of days when passengers travelling on sections of the Tube could be subjected to thermal discomfort under future scenarios of climate change, and the potential number of passengers dissatisfied.
Collaborator Contribution LU provided platform temperature sensor data which could be used to infer external to internal temperatures, as well as outputs from a passenger thermal comfort model.
Impact Jenkins, K., Gilsby, M., Hall, J., Glenis, V., Kilsby, C. (2014) Implications of climate change for thermal discomfort on underground railways. Transportation Research Part D. Transport and Environment. 30: 1-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2014.05.002.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration on the implication of climate change for future surface water flood risk, impacts, and options for adaptation. 
Organisation Greater London Authority (GLA)
Country United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland (UK) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Collaboration on the implication of climate change for future surface water flood risk and impacts, and options for adaptation. The ARCADIA team have used these maps to assess future flood risk, economic impacts, and options for adaptation, based on outputs from the spatial urban Weather Generator.
Collaborator Contribution The GLA provided Drain London surface water flood risk maps.
Impact No impact yet
Start Year 2013
 
Description ARCADIA factsheet series 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact Provided concise and key information to non-academic audience

Increase in requests for further information on the project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/pdfs/Arcadia_factsheets.pdf
 
Description ARCADIA stakeholder meeting (London) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact Talks and presentations sparked questions and discussion. It highlighted r3esearch which could be used to inform policy and further areas of research and use for the models were identified.

Stakeholders asked for a series of factsheets which were generated. Follow up meetings were proposed with the GLA and DrainLondon to look at surface water flood risk. Links to the London climate change Partnership were made.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description ARCC ACN Blog post on the win-win offer for city scale adaptation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Blog post to highlight findings from ARCADIA and publiicise through the ARCC webiste. This blog is the place to discover some of the background to our ARCC activities, and where adaptation experts from around the network and beyond share their work and thoughts.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/list/blog/page/2/
 
Description Greater London Authority / Environment Agency: Supporting stakeholders from the GLA and EA in developing adaptation pathways to increased heat risk and drought in London. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact Sharing of knowledge and input to modelling activities is helping to guide and support stakeholders from the GLA and EA in developing adaptation pathways in response to increased heat risk and drought in London.

Adaptation pathways are being developed, modelled and tested based on information, needs, and criteria of policy makers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity
 
Description Involvement in London Climate Change Partnership Heat Risk Group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Involvement in the London Climate Change Partnership Heat risk group to disseminate the outputs of ARCADIA and follow on work. The group acts as a hub for knowledge exchange between organisations working on the various aspects of planning for heatwaves and responding to longer term overheating risk.
Tackling:
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014,2015,2016
URL http://climatelondon.org.uk/projects/heat-risk-to-london/
 
Description Participation in workshop on adaptation pathways 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Participated in a workshop on 'Managing risk despite uncertainty: adaptation pathways' as part of the RAMSES project. The aim was to provide feedback and suggestions for the development of guidlines for supporting the use of an adaptation pathways approach. Resulted in the sharing of ideas and dissemination of related research papers as well as wider discussion on future possible research proposals.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Presentation: Core Cities stakeholder event on Linking Research to Practice 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented work from ARCADIA at the ClimateReady: Climate Resilient Cities. Core Cities stakeholder event on Linking Research to Practice, Aston University, Birmingham. November 22, 2012. The key impact was to engage with different stakeholders to highlight what research outputs were avaliable and highlight how they could be used to enhance uptake and impact. This spraked debate on the use of different modelling tools and ways to overcome certain barriers to their use, as well as follow up questions on the research and requests for information.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Presentation: Planet Under Pressure Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Presentation and panel discussion in session on Urbanisation for a Sustainable Future. Planet Under Pressure. London. March 27, 2012. The presentation reached an interbnational audience and resulted in requests for further information and journal articles.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
URL http://www.icsu.org/events/interdisciplinary-body-events/planet-under-presure-conference
 
Description Presentation: UK Met Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation on 'Heat Risk Assessment in London' to the climate risk group at the Met Office. The event focused on heat risk and allowed for ideas and methodologies to be shared. Main outcomes were the validation of proposed methods and future collaboration in terms of sharing ideas and links to data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Press release on heat risk in London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Sparked wider interest in the ARCADIA project, requests for information, copies of journal papers, and contributions to news websites and magazines reporting on the press release.

Increased requests for information and copies of journal papers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2014-04-15-future-heat-waves-pose-risk-population-greater-london