[FINANCE] Wind Risk Forecasting for Forest Investments

Lead Research Organisation: University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Geosciences

Abstract

This frontier and interdisciplinary project contributes to addressing a critical knowledge gap between forest-loss risks and investor confidence in Amazonian forest assets. The project represents a novel collaboration between University of Edinburgh (Patenaude), Forest Research (Gardiner, Perks) and ForestRe (Cottle), and draws on expertise in forest science, insurance, risk assessment, modelling and earth observation. The proposed study area is in southern Brazil. The key focus will be on managing wind risk for institutional investment in carbon afforestation, across 3 Forest Management Types (FMTs): commercial biomass management, community managed woodfuel forestry & Amazonian natural forest. The potential economic impact of this exercise are considerable, as this type of research contributes to delivering a more stable and 'conventional' investment environment for forestry, enabling it to become mainstream. For insurers such as ForestRe, this should assist in bringing forestry from the margins of business to a business line as common as aviation, motor, or life and pensions.

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