Global modelling of local biodiversity responses to human impacts

Lead Research Organisation: The Natural History Museum
Department Name: Life Sciences

Abstract

Biodiversity is declining. Despite the commitment made by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, all the evidence shows that biodiversity is declining at steady or even accelerating rates, and that the pressures behind the decline are if anything getting worse. This is bad news, because every person in every country depends on ecosystem services - benefits that ecological systems provide to people - and the biodiversity that underpins it. These links are most direct for the hundreds of millions of people in the world's poorest countries who depend on local biodiversity for food, fibres, medicines and fuel.

As the deadline for the 2010 target came and went, problems became apparent with the biodiversity indicators scientists have used to assess trends. Because the 2010 target needed to be assessed quickly, existing indicators were designed around sets of data that researchers had already collated together. This led to biases because we know more about charismatic vertebrates than about insects, more about temperate than tropical biodiversity, and more about populations of single species than about the ecological communities of which they are parts. The rush also meant that some indicators might not be rigorous enough to support policy decisions - a real concern, given how any apparent weakness in the evidence for human-caused climate change is leapt on by vociferous critics. There is a need for scientifically rigorous indicators that reflect threats to biodiversity, the state of biodiversity, ecosystem services and policy responses.

The main threats facing biodiversity (often termed drivers or pressures) are the destruction, degradation and fragmentation of habitats, and the damage to individuals' fitness caused by exploitation, pollution and introduction of species from other parts of the world. We know that the highest proportions of threatened mammals, birds and amphibians are found in those regions where human pressures have recently become intense. We also know that some species and ecosystems have characteristics that make them better able than others to persist in spite of human actions. An urgent priority for research, therefore, is to model how the state of biodiversity is affected not only by threat intensities but also by ecological characteristics. Such a model will let us understand the complex spatial, temporal, taxonomic and ecological patterns of decline. We will also be able to use those models to make projections that can inform and support policy.

This proposal is a true partnership between a world-class university (Imperial College London), an intergovernmental conservation organisation (UNEP-WCMC), a leading biodiversity research institute (Institute of Zoology) and a world-leading technology company (Microsoft Research), sharing the aim of integrating existing data on biodiversity and human threats to produce the best possible basis for policy. We will also use the framework we develop to tackle a wide range of both fundamental and policy-relevant questions in biodiversity science.

UNEP-WCMC will use the framework for biodiversity projections in response to requests from decision-makers, including the international conventions, governments and businesses. We will meet guidelines laid down by the nascent Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) to ensure the framework is fit for purpose. Because the framework is being developed as a true partnership between project partners, it will translate directly into evaluations of policy options for biodiversity management.

Planned Impact

We have identified three major beneficiaries from our proposal, as follows:

1. International policy organisations: Outputs from out empirical models have the potential inform international agreements and processes, such as model intercomparisons for the nascent Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), or new assessments being established, e.g. UNEP's ongoing Global Environment Outlook (GEO) series or for future Global Biodiversity Outlooks (GBO) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Further, biodiversity scenarios could inform decision making on the implementation of mechanisms to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) being negotiated under UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For all these potential impacts, transparency, relevance and scientific rigour are extremely important. We will report completed findings from our models and projections in the next Global Environment Outlook report and in the follow-up to TEEB.

The biodiversity database created in this project could form part of the UK's contribution towards the Biodiversity Societal Benefit Area of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), in particular the GEO Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON).

UNEP-WCMC will use the framework for biodiversity projections in response to requests from decision-makers, including the international conventions, governments and businesses. We will meet guidelines laid down by the newly-formed Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) to ensure the framework is fit for purpose. Because the framework is being developed as a true partnership between project partners, it will translate directly into evaluations of policy options for biodiversity management.

2. UK and other national governments: Model scenario outputs at sub-global spatial resolution might be of interest to national governments for national-scale biodiversity assessments and biodiversity conservation planning. Additionally, the UK government is a member of GEO, through Defra, so may benefit directly if the project fulfils part of their obligations.

3. Biodiversity conservation researchers: The empirical data bases that underpin our biodiversity models will add value to existing empirical data on biodiversity patterns, hopefully motivating further collection and collation of relevant data. Additionally, many researchers will be interested in results from the answers our analyses provide to a range of questions having both pure and applied interest; e.g., whether reductions in different facets of biodiversity - such as local abundance, functional diversity, or spatial turnover - decline smoothly and in step as threats increase or instead show possibly different thresholds; and whether biodiversity patterns in well-studied groups like mammals and birds can be used to predict broader patterns.

Publications


10 25 50

Related Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Award Value
NE/J011193/1 16/07/2012 03/11/2013 £614,229
NE/J011193/2 Transfer NE/J011193/1 04/11/2013 03/10/2015 £391,795
 
Description In terms of science, we have shown that land use and associated human pressures have severe and negative global effects on local terrestrial biodiversity. We have estimated the global average reduction in local species richness caused so far by these pressures, and projected losses forwards to 2100 under four alternative land-use scenarios that relate to different climate mitigation strategies. A particularly important finding is that a biofuel-based mitigation strategy, though effective for climate, could have serious effects on biodiversity worldwide. We published this work as an Article in Nature (Newbold et al. Nature 520:45-50, 2015).

Subsequent analysis showed that land use has pushed terrestrial biodiversity below proposed safe limits ('planetary boundaries') across most of the world's land surface (Newbold et al. 2016 Science 353:288-291), raising serious concerns about the possibilities of sustainable development. The indicator of biodiversity we developed for this paper - the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) - is being widely adopted within the conservation/policy field, as it reflects broad-sense biodiversity (in contrast to most existing indicators, which focus on a particular taxonomic group, e.g., vertebrates).

We also showed that terrestrial protected areas are moderately effective in retaining more biodiversity than nearby unprotected sites (Gray et al. 2016 Nature Communications 7:12306). Much of this effect can be attributed to protected areas (such as national parks) seeing less land use change, but there are also additional biodiversity benefits from protection. This finding is important because protected areas are a major plank in global conservation strategies, but their overall effectiveness for biodiversity conservation has not been assessed.

Our models are based on a database we have collated which is unprecedented in its size, taxonomic breadth and geographic coverage. It contains 2.5% as many species as are known to science, and has over 29000 sites from nearly countries worldwide. One of the most important things we have found is that literally hundreds of scientists worldwide are willing to share their data so that global models can be produced. Our database has therefore had the additional benefit of 'rescuing' many datasets that were previously at risk of being lost to science. Version 1.0 of this database has now been made freely available via the Natural History Museum's data portal (data.nhm.ac.uk), and we have published an open-access database paper (Hudson et al. 2017 Ecology & Evolution 7:145-188).
Exploitation Route UNEP-WCMC has taken outputs from our models and used them in its conservation 'dashboard', providing country-specific estimates of how much terrestrial biodiversity has been lost. Our
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections
URL http://www.predicts.org.uk
 
Description Our global models of how local biodiversity have responded to land-use and associated changes were used in UNEP-WCMC's report, 'Towards a global map of natural capital: key ecosystem assets'; the same map fed into UNEP-WCMC's report on protected areas, Protected Planet 2014. Our models were also used to make projections of future changes under alternative land-use scenarios in Global Biodiversity Outlook 4. Both of these are major policy-oriented reports, marshalling the latest leading science. The indicator of broad-sense biodiversity that we published in our 2016 Science paper, Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), has been adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity as being suitable for use in tracking progress towards the Aichi 2020 Biodiversity Targets, and is on a list of core indicators developed by IPBES, meaning it is an indicator that is recommended for use. We contributed to the 2016 UK State of Nature report, with an UK-wide analysis of BII which also compared the UK's levels of BII with those of other countries. Outputs from our 2015 Nature paper and 2016 Science paper have already been requested by and provided to the IPBES Regional Assessments for Europe & Central Asia and Africa, as well as for the IPBES Global Assessment.
First Year Of Impact 2015
Sector Environment
Impact Types Policy & public services
 
Description Advised on POSTNote on Environmental Trends
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PN-0516
 
Description PREDICTS models and projections of biodiversity featured in Global Biodiversity Outlook 4
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL http://www.cbd.int/gbo4/
 
Description Produced global map of terrestrial species-richness intactness used in Natural Capital report
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL http://www.unep-wcmc.org/system/dataset_file_fields/files/000/000/232/original/NCR-LR_Mixed.pdf?1406...
 
Title PREDICTS biodiversity database 
Description Design and implementation of database to hold biodiversity data provided by other researchers, and import of the first 500,000 records 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Developing this database led to important refinements in our processes for obtaining, processing, curating and managing data, strengthening the project as a whole. 
URL http://www.predicts.org.uk
 
Title PREDICTS database (update) 
Description The PREDICTS database now holds over 3.3 million records, covering over 50,000 species (2.5% as many as have been formally described) and over 29,000 sites (from 97 countries). We published a paper describing how the database was put together in 2014, making study-level metadata available. A manuscript describing and releasing the full database is currently in draft; we had intended to submit it for publication by now but it will be submitted within a few weeks. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact This database underpins all of the analyses undertaken as part of the PREDICTS project, including our 2015 Nature paper (Newbold et al. Nature 520:45-50). 
 
Title The 2016 release of the PREDICTS database 
Description A dataset of 3,250,404 measurements, collated from 26,114 sampling locations in 94 countries and representing 47,044 species. The data were collated from 480 existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database was assembled as part of the PREDICTS project - Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems; www.predicts.org.uk. The taxonomic identifications provided in the original data sets are those determined at the time of the original research, and so will not reflect subsequent taxonomic changes. This dataset is described in 10.1002/ece3.2579. A description of the way that this dataset was assembled is given in 10.1002/ece3.1303. columns.csv: Description of data extract columns database.zip: Database in zipped CSV format database.rds: Database in RDS format sites.zip: Site-level summaries in compressed CSV format sites.rds: Site-level summaries in RDS format references.csv: Data references in CSV format references.bib: Data references in BibTeX format 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The PREDICTS database underpins all the analytical publications from this grant. The most notable impact is that the Biodiversity Intactness Index (from Newbold et al. 2016 Science) is being widely adopted as an indicator of how broad-sense biodiversity is responding to human pressures around land-use change, already featuring in e.g. the 2016 UK State of Nature report. 
URL http://data.nhm.ac.uk/dataset/the-2016-release-of-the-predicts-database
 
Description Collaboration on biodiversity indicators with CSIRO Australia 
Organisation Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Country Australia, Commonwealth of 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution We are providing models of how local biodiversity responds to land use and related pressures globally.
Collaborator Contribution CSIRO are providing global downscaled land-use data at 1km resolution
Impact Two indicators - the Local Biotic Intactness Index and the Biodiversity Habitat Index - come from this collaboration, and both are currently under consideration by the Convention on Biological Diversity having been supported by the GEO BON.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Endorsement by GEO-BON 
Organisation Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
Department Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON)
Country Switzerland, Swiss Confederation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution PREDICTS has been officially endorsed by the GEO-BON (Group on Earth Observations - Biodiversity Observing Network); we will make our data freely available to them at the culmination of the project.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Land use-Biodiversity-Ecosystem Services working group 
Organisation German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv)
Country Germany, Federal Republic of 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution PDRA and PhD student involved in working group
Collaborator Contribution Members of all the partnership organisation are also involved in the working group
Impact None yet, but there is a manuscript about to be submitted.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Land use-Biodiversity-Ecosystem Services working group 
Organisation Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
Country Germany, Federal Republic of 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution PDRA and PhD student involved in working group
Collaborator Contribution Members of all the partnership organisation are also involved in the working group
Impact None yet, but there is a manuscript about to be submitted.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Land use-Biodiversity-Ecosystem Services working group 
Organisation National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC)
Country United States of America 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution PDRA and PhD student involved in working group
Collaborator Contribution Members of all the partnership organisation are also involved in the working group
Impact None yet, but there is a manuscript about to be submitted.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Natural Capital symposium 
Organisation Stanford University
Country United States of America 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Tim Newbold (named PDRA on grant) has been invited to attend the Natural Capital 2016 Symposium, and to stay on for a few days afterwards to explore collaboration opportunities
Collaborator Contribution None
Impact None yet
Start Year 2015
 
Description "The bigger they are, the harder they fall?" Organism size & species sensitivity to land-use impacts 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at European Ecological Federation Congress 2015: Symposium "The (macro)ecology of species decline on 21 September 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Biodiversity Hackathon - Introduction 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Research presentation at Biodiversity Hack on 20 June 2015 at Natural History Museum. Gave overview of goals of hack and the 'rules of engagement'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Briefing Rupert Lewis (Government Office for Science) on PREDICTS Pollinator work 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Briefing on results from analyses on how pollinators respond to land use to highlight work of the museum and help inform about the status of current knowledge.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Briefing Sonia Phippard (Director General of DEFRA) on PREDICTS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Briefed Director General of Defra on the results from the PREDICTS project to raise awareness about how our research could inform national and international environmental policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description British Ecological Society Macroecology conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Some discussion after talk

No immediate impacts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Cambridge Climate and Sustainability Forum 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact The students engaged in a lively discussion of the trade-offs between climate-change mitigation, land-use change and biodiversity

No obvious impacts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.cambridgeclimateforum.org/ccf-2014.html
 
Description Defining Biodiversity workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The talk led to an interesting discussion on what aspects of biodiversity humanity should value, and how we measure and predict this

The discussion may lead to the publication of a scientific paper
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.bris.ac.uk/cabot/events/2014/484.html
 
Description Do Protected Areas work? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Research presentation to UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, U.K. on 17 October 2014.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Friends of Madingley workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Participated at a one-day workshop on the Madingley General Ecosystem Model on 18 June 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/parliamentarians
Results and Impact The main finding of the report was that we are not on track to meet most of the current set of internationally agreed targets for biodiversity, but that more of these targets will be met under certain scenarios that mitigate human impacts.

The release of the Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 report generated substantial media interest in many countries.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
URL http://www.cbd.int/gbo4/
 
Description Global biodiversity models worskhop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Participated at a worskhop discussion of Madingley, GLOBIO and PREDICTS models of biodiversity on 28 September 2015 at UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Life Sciences Seminar on 1 April 2015 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Global land-use impacts on local terrestrial biodiversity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at London Land Use Forum on 10 February 2015 at Zoological Society of London.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Global, national and fine-scale impacts of land-use change on local terrestrial biodiversity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Policy Forum for Wales Keynote Seminar - Managing Wales' Natural Resources and Protecting Biodiversity - on 7 July 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Hintze Hall Redevelopment discussion 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Participated at Hintze Hall Redevelopment discussion - Giant Sequoia interpretation with Dan Baker - on 6 October 2015 at Natural History Museum. Consequence will be that the new display will have a stronger environmental science component, spelling out some of the human effects on global biodiversity and ecosystems. This exhibit will be seen by a large proportion of our 5.5 million public visitors each year. There is no impact yet, because the new exhibit has not yet been unveiled.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description IARU Sustainability Science Congress 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The talk was received with interest, and I was approached by the director of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to ask about data.

No obvious immediate impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://sustainability.ku.dk/iarucongress2014/
 
Description INTECOL conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The talk was well received.

Following the talk, the New Scientist ran an article and editorial on the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Modelling and projecting global land-use impacts on local terrestrial biodiversity: the PREDICTS project 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Departmental Seminar on 9 October 2015 at King's College London.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description New Scientist coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact New Scientist published an editorial and leading article on the PREDICTS project

No obvious impact beyond increased awareness of the project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21929333.000-stop-global-warming-and-save-biodiversity-yes-we-...
 
Description Newshour 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Broadcast interview regarding PREDICTS project paper in Nature for BBC World Service on 2 April 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02msmm7
 
Description Openness and availability of data 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Participated at Openness and availability of data workshop on 23 March 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description PREDICTS Project Symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Organiser of PREDICTS Project Symposium, a one-day symposium celebrating the achievements of the PREDICTS project, on 14 September 2015 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description PREDICTS: Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Life Sciences seminar on 9 October 2013 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology Event on the National Pollinator Strategy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I organised a Parliamentary Event to inform MPs and Peers about the evidence base underpinning the National Pollinator Strategy. An expert panel presented evidence, followed by a discussion.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Phenotypes in macroevolution and conservation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Phenotype Initiative Town Hall meeting on 13 April 2015 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Phylogenetic signal in bee species' sensitivity to land-use change, EU Macro, Copenhagen, Denmark. June 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented work to colleagues on a new index of species sensitivity to land use change, showing that sensitivities are non-random with respect to phylogeny. This opens opportunities to estimate sensitivities of species that have not yet been sampled, allowing us to predict which species are likely to be at risk when data are lacking.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Predicting bee community response to land-use changes: effects of geographic and taxonomic biases. British Ecological Society and Société Française d'Ecologie joint meeting, Lille, France. December 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I presented a talk to scientific colleagues showing that land-use impacts vary depending on the region and taxa that are studied. The work highlights the need for geographically and taxonomically representative databases as extrapolating from models underpinned by biased datasets can be misleading.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Predicting species' declines (and, perhaps, ecosystem effects) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at HarmBio WG4 meeting on 22 April 2015 at BIK-F, Senckenberg Museum, Frankfurt, Germany.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Press release and radio interview for recently published paper 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Press release and radio interview for my recently published paper on how land-use activities affect bees.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems Towards a global model of how local biodiversity responds to human impacts 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Departmental Seminar on 5 December 2013 at Department of Biosciences, Swansea University, Swansea, U.K.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems: A global database and model 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Future Directions for the Living Planet Index: workshop on 9 February 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems: Has terrestrial biodiversity crossed a Planetary Boundary? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Biotic Response to Environmental Change: Insights from Natural History Collections on 27 November 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems: Mobilising biodiversity data to tackle global Grand Challenges 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Science Group Planning Conference on 12 March 2015 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems: Towards a global model of how local biodiversity responds to human impacts 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Departmental Seminar on 30 October 2014 at School of Biological & Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University London, London.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems: an overview of PREDICTS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at PREDICTS Project Symposium on 14 September 2015 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems: an overview of PREDICTS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Global biodiversity models workshop on 28 September 2015 at UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Public outreach activity at Science Uncovered event at the Natural History Museum, London. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A team of five PREDICTS researchers explained the project and its implications to members of the public, leading to many interesting discussions. The overall event attracted over 8000 people; our team engaged with around 50 over the 1.5 hours we were presenting.

Fifteen members of the public followed up by visiting the project website or emailing the team; several looked at our most recent research paper.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Science Uncovered -Public Engagement at the Natural History Museum on biodiversity loss 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Science Uncovered allows the public to enter the Natural History Museum and ask questions of numerous researchers about their work. We hosted the PREDICTS stall, where we spoke to a number of people about how land-use activities can affect bee populations and coral reefs.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description The PREDICTS model 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at Global Models of Biodiversity workshop on 20 January 2015 at Natural History Museum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description The global response of terrestrial protected area biodiversity to human impacts 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at World Parks Congress 2015 on 15 November 2014 at Olympic Stadium, Sydney, Australia.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Using functional traits to model species' sensitivity to land-use change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Research presentation at European Ecological Federation Congress 2015; Symposium "Plant traits - a tool towards a more predictive ecology?" on 21 September 2015. Led to new collaboration with the TRY database, which will improve understanding of how ecosystem services are affected by land use change.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015